American Economic Review Vol. 109 No. 11 2019
Did Austerity Cause Brexit?
Abstract
This paper documents a significant association between the exposure of an individual or area to the UK government’s austerity-induced welfare reforms begun in 2010, and the following: the subsequent rise in support for the UK Independence Party, an important correlate of Leave support in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership; broader individual-level measures of political dissatisfaction; and direct measures of support for Leave. Leveraging data from all UK electoral contests since 2000, along with detailed, individual-level panel data, the findings suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for austerity.
- DOI
- 10.1257/aer.20181164
- Volume
- 109
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 3849-3886
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref