1 Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, Universidad Torcuato di Tella (Argentina), and NBER. · 2 Department of Economics, University of Chicago, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637, and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. · 3 Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291.