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American Economic Review Vol. 100 No. 4 2010

Preemption Games: Theory and Experiment

Steven T. Anderson1; Daniel Friedman2; Ryan Oprea2

1 National Minerals Information Center, US Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192. · 2 Economics Department, University of California–Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064.

Abstract

Several impatient investors with private costs C i face an indivisible irreversible investment opportunity whose value V is governed by geometric Brownian motion. The first investor i to seize the opportunity receives the entire payoff, V-C i . We characterize the symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibrium for this game. A laboratory experiment confirms the model's main qualitative predictions: competition drastically lowers the value at which investment occurs; usually the lowest-cost investor preempts the other investors; observed investment patterns in competition (unlike monopoly) are quite insensitive to changes in the Brownian parameters. Support is more qualified for the prediction that markups decline with cost.

DOI
10.1257/aer.100.4.1778
Volume
100
Issue
4
Pages
1778-1803
Language
en
Sources
openalex bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref

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