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American Economic Review Vol. 101 No. 5 2011

Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks

Mirko Draca1; Stephen Machin2; Robert Witt3

1 Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom. · 2 Department of Economics, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, and Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE. · 3 Department of Economics, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey, GU2 7XH.

Abstract

In this paper we study the causal impact of police on crime, looking at what happened to crime and police before and after the terror attacks that hit central London in July 2005. The attacks resulted in a large redeployment of police officers to central London as compared to outer London. During this time, crime fell significantly in central relative to outer London. The instrumental variable approach we use uncovers an elasticity of crime with respect to police of approximately -0.3 to -0.4, so that a 10 percent increase in police activity reduces crime by around 3 to 4 percent. JEL: K42

DOI
10.1257/aer.101.5.2157
Volume
101
Issue
5
Pages
2157-2181
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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