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American Economic Review Vol. 102 No. 3 2012

Adaptation to Climate Change in Preindustrial Iceland

Matthew A. Turner1; Jeffrey S. Rosenthal2; Jian Chen2; Chunyan Hao2

1 Department of Economics, University of Toronto, 150 Saint George Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3G7. · 2 Department of Statistics, University of Toronto, 100 Saint George Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5S 3G3.

Abstract

We investigate the effect of climate change on population growth in 18th and 19th century Iceland. We find that annual temperature changes help determine the population growth rate in pre-industrial Iceland: a year 1 degree Celsius cooler than average drives down population growth rates by 1.14%. We also find that 18th and 19th century Icelanders adapt to prolonged changes in climate after 20 years. These adaptations reduce the short run effect of annual change in temperature by about 60%. Finally, a 1 degree Celsius sustained decrease in temperature decreases the steady state population by 10% to 26%.

DOI
10.1257/aer.102.3.250
Volume
102
Issue
3
Pages
250-255
Language
en
Sources
crossref openalex bibtex:phds-export.bib

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