American Economic Review Vol. 110 No. 5 2020

The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization

Alex Armand¹; Paul Atwell²; Joseph Flavian Gomes³

¹ Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, NOVAFRICA, Navarra Center for International Development, and Institute for Fiscal Studies (email: ) · ² Department of Political Science, University of Michigan, and Ford School of Public Policy (email: ) · ³ IRES/LIDAM, UCLouvain, and CEPR (email: )

Abstract

We examine the role of FM radio in mitigating violent conflict. We collect original data on radio broadcasts encouraging defections during the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency. This constitutes the first quantitative evaluation of an active counterinsurgency policy that encourages defections through radio messages. Exploiting random topography-driven variation in radio coverage along with panel variation at the grid-cell level, we identify the causal effect of messaging on violence. Broadcasting defection messages increases defections and reduces fatalities, violence against civilians, and clashes with security forces. Income shocks have opposing effects on both the conflict and the effectiveness of messaging.

DOI

10.1257/aer.20181135

Volume

110

Issue

5

Pages

1395-1429

Language

en

Sources

bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

Cite

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