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American Economic Review Vol. 105 No. 11 2015

Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality and Correlated Medical Costs

Felix Reichling1; Kent Smetters2

1 Macroeconomic Analysis Division, Congressional Budget Office, Ford House Office Building, Washington, DC 20515 (e-mail: ) · 2 Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, 3620 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104, and NBER (e-mail: )

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Abstract

The conventional wisdom since Yaari (1965) is that households without a bequest motive should fully annuitize their investments. Numerous frictions do not break this sharp result. We modify the Yaari framework by allowing a household's mortality risk itself to be stochastic due to health shocks. A lifetime annuity still helps to hedge longevity risk. But the annuity's remaining present value is correlated with medical costs, such as those for nursing home care, thereby reducing annuity demand, even without ad-hoc liquidity constraints. We find that most households should not hold a positive level of annuities, and many should hold negative amounts.

DOI
10.1257/aer.20131584
Volume
105
Issue
11
Pages
3273-3320
Language
en
Sources
openalex bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref

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