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American Economic Review Vol. 104 No. 5 2014

Renegotiation Policies in Sovereign Defaults

Cristina Arellano1; Yan Bai2

1 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and University of Minnesota, 90 Hennepin Ave., Minneapolis, MN 55401, and NBER (e-mail: ) · 2 University of Rochester, Department of Economics, 216 Harkness Hall, Rochester, NY 14627 (e-mail: )

Abstract

This paper studies an optimal renegotiation protocol designed by a benevolent planner when two countries renegotiate with the same lender. The solution calls for recoveries that induce each country to default or repay, trading off the deadweight costs and the redistribution benefits of default independently of the other country. This outcome contrasts with a decentralized bargaining solution where default in one country increases the likelihood of default in the second country because recoveries are lower when both countries renegotiate. The paper suggests that policies geared at designing renegotiation processes that treat countries in isolation can prevent contagion of debt crises.

DOI
10.1257/aer.104.5.94
Volume
104
Issue
5
Pages
94-100
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref openalex

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