American Economic Review Vol. 105 No. 2 2015

Overconfidence in Political Behavior

Pietro Ortoleva¹; Erik Snowberg²

¹ Department of Economics, Columbia University, 1025 International Affairs Building, 420 W. 118th Street, New York, NY 10027 (e-mail: ) · ² Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (e-mail: ).

Abstract

This paper studies, theoretically and empirically, the role of overconfidence in political behavior. Our model of overconfidence in beliefs predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and stronger partisan identification. The model also makes nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society. These predictions are tested using unique data that measure the overconfidence and standard political characteristics of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults. Our numerous predictions find strong support in these data. In particular, we document that overconfidence is a substantively and statistically important predictor of ideological extremeness, voter turnout, and partisan identification.

DOI

10.1257/aer.20130921

Volume

105

Issue

2

Pages

504-535

Language

en

Sources

bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

Cite

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