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Econometrica Vol. 78 No. 1 2010

Evaluating Marginal Policy Changes and the Average Effect of Treatment for Individuals at the Margin

Pedro Carneiro1; James J. Heckman2,3; Edward Vytlacil4,5

1 University College London · 2 University College Dublin · 3 American Bar Foundation · 4 Leverhulme Trust · 5 Yale University

open access

Abstract

This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and nonparticipation, and use this connection to analyze both parameters. We apply our analysis to estimate the effect of marginal changes in tuition on the return to going to college.

DOI
10.3982/ecta7089
Volume
78
Issue
1
Pages
377-394
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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