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Econometrica Vol. 90 No. 6 2022

Spatial Correlation Robust Inference

Ulrich K. Müller; Mark W. Watson

Department of Economics Princeton University

Abstract

We propose a method for constructing confidence intervals that account for many forms of spatial correlation. The interval has the familiar “estimator plus and minus a standard error times a critical value” form, but we propose new methods for constructing the standard error and the critical value. The standard error is constructed using population principal components from a given “worst‐case” spatial correlation model. The critical value is chosen to ensure coverage in a benchmark parametric model for the spatial correlations. The method is shown to control coverage in finite sample Gaussian settings in a restricted but nonparametric class of models and in large samples whenever the spatial correlation is weak, that is, with average pairwise correlations that vanish as the sample size gets large. We also provide results on the efficiency of the method.

DOI
10.3982/ecta19465
Volume
90
Issue
6
Pages
2901-2935
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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