Econometrica Vol. 76 No. 3 2008

Comparative Testing of Experts

Nabil I. Al-Najjar; Jonathan Weinstein^1,2

¹ Northwestern University · ² Decision Sciences (United States)

Abstract

We show that a simple "reputation-style" test can always identify which of two experts is informed about the true distribution. The test presumes no prior knowledge of the true distribution, achieves any desired degree of precision in some fixed finite time, and does not use "counterfactual" predictions. Our analysis capitalizes on a result of Fudenberg and Levine (1992) on the rate of convergence of supermartingales. Copyright

DOI

10.1111/j.1468-0262.2008.00846.x

Volume

76

Issue

3

Pages

541-559

Language

en

Sources

bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref openalex

Cite

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