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Journal of Banking & Finance Vol. 53 2015

Model uncertainty and systematic risk in US banking

Lieven Baele1; Valerie De Bruyckere; Olivier De Jonghe; Rudi Vander Vennet

1 Tilburg University

open access

Abstract

This paper uses Bayesian Model Averaging to examine the driving factors of equity returns of US Bank Holding Companies. BMA has as an advantage over OLS that it accounts for the considerable uncertainty about the correct set (model) of bank risk factors. We find that out of a broad set of 12risk factors only the market, real estate, and high-minus-low Fama–French factors are reliably related to US bank stock returns over the period 1986–2010. Other factors are either only relevant over specific subperiods or for subsets of bank holding companies. We discuss the implications of our findings for empirical banking research.

DOI
10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.11.012
Volume
53
Pages
49-66
Language
en
Sources
openalex crossref bibtex:phds-export.bib

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