Journal of Banking & Finance Vol. 119 2020
Estimating nominal interest rate expectations: Overnight indexed swaps and the term structure
Abstract
No-arbitrage dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) have regularly been used to estimate interest rate expectations and term premia, but are beset by empirical challenges. I propose augmenting DTSMs with overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates to better estimate the decomposition along the term structure at daily frequencies. A Gaussian affine DTSM, augmented with 3 to 24-month OIS rates, generates estimates of US expectations that closely correspond to survey-implied measures out to a 10-year horizon and are more stable across sub-samples, compared to existing models. In addition, I provide narrative evidence, in the form of an event study around US unconventional monetary policy announcements, to further exemplify the benefits from OIS augmentation.
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105915
- Volume
- 119
- Pages
- 105915
- Language
- en
- Sources
- crossref openalex bibtex:phds-export.bib