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Journal of Banking & Finance Vol. 25 No. 1 2001

Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data

Mark Carey1,2; Mark Hrycay3

1 Federal Reserve · 2 Federal Reserve Board of Governors · 3 Advertising.com, 1422 Nicholson, Baltimore, MD 21230, USA

open access

Abstract

Estimates of average default probabilities for borrowers assigned to each of a financial institution's internal credit risk rating grades are crucial inputs to portfolio credit risk models. Such models are increasingly used in setting financial institution capital structure, in internal control and compensation systems, in asset-backed security design, and are being considered for use in setting regulatory capital requirements for banks. This paper empirically examines properties of the major methods currently used to estimate average default probabilities by grade. Evidence of potential problems of bias, instability, and gaming is presented. With care, and perhaps judicious application of multiple methods, satisfactory estimates may be possible. In passing, evidence is presented about other properties of internal and rating-agency ratings.

DOI
10.1016/s0378-4266(00)00124-2
Volume
25
Issue
1
Pages
197-270
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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