Journal of Financial Economics Vol. 76 No. 3 2005
There is a risk-return trade-off after all
Abstract
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the aggregate stock market return. We introduce a new estimator that forecasts monthly variance with past daily squared returns, the mixed data sampling (or MIDAS) approach. Using MIDAS, we find a significantly positive relation between risk and return in the stock market. This finding is robust in subsamples, to asymmetric specifications of the variance process and to controlling for variables associated with the business cycle. We compare the MIDAS results with tests of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model based on alternative conditional variance specifications and explain the conflicting results in the literature. Finally, we offer new insights about the dynamics of conditional variance.
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.03.008
- Volume
- 76
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 509-548
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref