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Journal of Financial Economics Vol. 139 No. 3 2021

Loan guarantees and credit supply

Natalie Bachas1; Olivia S. Kim2; Constantine Yannelis3

1 Princeton University · 2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology · 3 University of Chicago

Abstract

The efficiency of federal lending guarantees depends on whether guarantees increase lending supply or simply act as a subsidy to lenders. We use notches in the guarantee rate schedule for Small Business Administration (SBA) loans to estimate the elasticity of bank lending volume to loan guarantees. We show significant bunching in the loan distribution on the side of the size threshold that carries a more generous loan guarantee. The excess mass implies that increasing guarantee generosity by one percentage point of loan principal would increase per-loan lending volume by $19,000. Excess mass increases in periods with guarantee generosity, and placebo results indicate that the effect disappears when the guarantee notch is eliminated.

DOI
10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.08.008
Volume
139
Issue
3
Pages
872-894
Language
en
Sources
crossref bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex

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