Journal of Financial Economics Vol. 26 No. 2 1990
Bayesian inference in asset pricing tests
Abstract
We test the mean-variance efficiency of a given portfolio using a Bayesian framework. Our test is more direct than Shanken's (1987b), because we impose a prior on all the parameters of the multivariate regression model. The approach is also easily adapted to other problems. We use Monte Carlo numerical integration to accurately evaluate 90-dimensional integrals. Posterior-odds ratios are calculated for 12 industry portfolios from 1926–1987. The sensitivity of the inferences to the prior is investigated by using three different distributions. The probability that the given portfolio is mean-variance efficient is small for a range of plausible priors.
- DOI
- 10.1016/0304-405x(90)90004-j
- Volume
- 26
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 221-254
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref