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Journal of Financial Economics Vol. 175 2026

Securing technological leadership? The cost of export controls on firms

Matteo Crosignani1; Lina Han2; Marco Macchiavelli2; André F. Silva3

1 Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 2 University of Massachusetts Amherst · 3 Federal Reserve

Abstract

To safeguard its technological leadership, the U.S. has restricted domestic suppliers from exporting cutting-edge technologies to selected Chinese firms. Domestic firms affected by these export controls halt sales to Chinese customers, as intended, but struggle to establish new relations with alternative customers domestically or in politically aligned regions. Consequently, domestic suppliers experience sizable losses in market capitalization, along with reductions in profitability, employment, and bank lending. Chinese firms are more proactive in reconfiguring supply chains, though not without costs. Overall, export controls impose larger costs on U.S. firms developing the very technologies these policies aim to protect.

DOI
10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104192
Volume
175
Pages
104192
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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