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Journal of Financial Stability Vol. 76 2025

Robust-less-fragile: Tackling systemic risk and financial contagion in a macro agent-based model

Gianluca Pallante1; Mattia Guerini2,1,3,4,5; Mauro Napoletano2,1,6,3; Andrea Roventini1

1 Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna · 2 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique · 3 Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Économie, Gestion · 4 Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei · 5 University of Brescia · 6 Centre d'études Européennes de Sciences Po

open access

Abstract

We extend the Schumpeter meeting Keynes (K+S) agent-based model by introducing an evolving interbank network in the money market. Banks are exposed to counterparty risk and evaluate interbank positions using a network valuation (NEVA) clearing mechanism, which ensures systemic risk minimization with minimal assumptions on banks’ behavior. The model can replicate several stylized facts about the topology of the interbank network and the dynamics of banks’ balance sheets. The model encompasses financial contagion and systemic risk, allowing us to study the interactions between micro- and macro-prudential policies. Our results suggest that the introduction of a micro-prudential regulation also accounting for the network structure can reduce the incidence of systemic risk events. We also find that, in presence of a two-pillar regulatory framework – grounded on a Basel III macro-prudential regulation and a NEVA-based micro-prudential one –, there is no trade-off between financial stability and macroeconomic performance. This points towards the possibility of designing a regulatory framework able to achieve financial stability without overly stringent capital requirements.

DOI
10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101352
Volume
76
Pages
101352
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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