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Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol. 52 No. 4 2017

Common Macro Factors and Currency Premia

Ilias Filippou1; Mark P. Taylor2,1,3

1 Washington University in St. Louis · 2 Brookings Institution · 3 Centre for Economic Policy Research

open access

Abstract

We study the role of domestic and global factors in the payoffs of portfolios mimicking carry, dollar-carry, and momentum strategies. Using factors summarizing large data sets of macroeconomic and financial variables, we find that global equity-market factors are predictive for carry-trade returns, whereas U.S. inflation and consumption variables drive dollar-carry-trade payoffs, momentum returns are predominantly driven by U.S. inflation factors, and global factors capture the countercyclical nature of currency premia. We also find predictability in the exchange-rate component of each strategy and demonstrate strong economic value for risk-averse investors with mean-variance preferences, regardless of base currency.

DOI
10.1017/s0022109017000424
Volume
52
Issue
4
Pages
1731-1763
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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