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Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol. 53 No. 5 2018

When Banks Grow Too Big for Their National Economies: Tail Risks, Risk Channels, and Government Guarantees

Jens Hagendorff1; Kevin Keasey2; Francesco Vallascas3

1 University of Edinburgh · 2 University of Leeds · 3 Durham University

open access

Abstract

Banks are growing ever larger compared to their national economies. We show that increases in relative bank size (measured as a bank’s liabilities divided by national GDP) are linked to banks displaying higher tail risk. This effect is not entirely due to risk channels that disproportionately expose relatively large banks to systematic tail risks, sovereign risks, or banking crises. Instead, we detect a persistent component in the tail risk of relatively large banks that is bank-specific and connected to government guarantees. Furthermore, as banks grow in relative size, tail risks are shifted to debtholders without wealth gains for shareholders.

DOI
10.1017/s0022109018000327
Volume
53
Issue
5
Pages
2041-2066
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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