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Journal of Political Economy Vol. 127 No. 4 2019

Debt Constraints and Employment

Patrick J. Kehoe1,2,3,4; Virgiliu Midrigan5; Elena Pastorino6,1,2,4

1 Federal Reserve · 2 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis · 3 University College London · 4 Stanford University · 5 New York University · 6 Hoover Institution

Abstract

During the Great Recession, US regions that experienced large declines in household debt also experienced large drops in consumption, employment, and wages. We develop a search and matching model in which tighter debt constraints raise the cost of investing in new job vacancies and so reduce job-finding rates and employment. On-the-job human capital accumulation is critical to generating sizable drops in employment: it increases the duration of the benefit flows from posting vacancies, thereby amplifying the employment drop from a credit tightening 10-fold relative to the standard model. Our model reproduces the salient cross-regional features of the US Great Recession.

DOI
10.1086/701608
Volume
127
Issue
4
Pages
1926-1991
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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