Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century

Alan Barreca; Karen Clay; Olivier Deschênes; Michael Greenstone; Joseph Shapiro

doi:10.1086/684582

Journal of Political Economy Vol. 124 No. 1 2016

Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century

Alan Barreca^1,2,3; Karen Clay^2,4; Olivier Deschênes; Michael Greenstone²; Joseph Shapiro^2,5

¹ Tulane University · ² National Bureau of Economic Research · ³ IZA - Institute of Labor Economics · ⁴ Carnegie Mellon University · ⁵ Yale University

open access

Abstract

This paper examines the temperature-mortality relationship over the course of the twentieth-century United States both for its own interest and to identify potentially useful adaptations for coming decades. There are three primary findings. First, the mortality impact of days with mean temperature exceeding 807F declined by 75 percent. Almost the entire decline occurred after 1960. Second, the diffusion of residential air conditioning explains essentially the entire decline in hot day–related fatalities. Third, using Dubin and McFadden’s discrete continuous model, the present value of US consumer surplus from the introduction of residential air conditioning is estimated to be $85– $185 billion (2012 dollars).

DOI: 10.1086/684582
Volume: 124
Issue: 1
Pages: 105-159
Language: en
Sources: openalex crossref bibtex:phds-export.bib

Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the US Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the Twentieth Century

Abstract

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