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Journal of Political Economy Vol. 122 No. 1 2014

Labor Hiring, Investment, and Stock Return Predictability in the Cross Section

Frederico Belo1,2; Xiaoji Lin3; Santiago Bazdresch4

1 University of Minnesota · 2 National Bureau of Economic Research · 3 The Ohio State University · 4 University of Minnesota System

Abstract

We study the impact of labor market frictions on asset prices. In the cross section of US firms, a 10 percentage point increase in the firm’s hiring rate is associated with a 1.5 percentage point decrease in the firm’s annual risk premium. We propose an investment-based model with stochastic labor adjustment costs to explain this finding. Firms with high hiring rates are expanding firms that incur high adjustment costs. If the economy experiences a shock that lowers adjustment costs, these firms benefit the most. The corresponding increase in firm value operates as a hedge against these shocks, explaining the lower risk premium of these firms in equilibrium.

DOI
10.1086/674549
Volume
122
Issue
1
Pages
129-177
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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