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Journal of Political Economy Vol. 125 No. 1 2017

Nonlinear Effects of Taxation on Growth

Nir Jaimovich1,2; Sergio Rebelo2,3

1 University of Southern California · 2 National Bureau of Economic Research · 3 Centre for Economic Policy Research

Abstract

We propose a model consistent with two observations. First, the tax rates adopted by different countries are generally uncorrelated with their growth performance. Second, countries that drastically reduce private incentives to invest severely hurt their growth performance. In our model, the effects of taxation on growth are highly nonlinear. Low tax rates have a very small impact on long-run growth rates. But as tax rates rise, their negative impact on growth rises dramatically. The median voter chooses tax rates that have a small impact on growth prospects, making the relation between tax rates and economic growth difficult to measure empirically.

DOI
10.1086/689607
Volume
125
Issue
1
Pages
265-291
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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