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Journal of Political Economy Vol. 130 No. 7 2022

Reevaluating the Long-Term Impact of In Utero Exposure to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

Brian Beach1,2; Ryan Brown3; Joseph P. Ferrie1; Martin Saavedra4; Duncan Thomas1

1 National Bureau of Economic Research · 2 Vanderbilt University · 3 University of Colorado Denver · 4 Oberlin College

open access

Abstract

Almond (2006) argues that in utero exposure to the 1918 influenza pandemic reduced the 1919 birth cohort's adult socioeconomic status (SES). We show that this cohort came from lower-SES families, which is incompatible with Almond's cohort-comparison identification strategy. The adult SES deficit is reduced after background characteristics are controlled for; it is small and statistically insignificant in models that include household fixed effects. Replicating Almond's state-level dose-response analysis, we find no evidence in census data that influenza exposure reduced adult SES. Evidence from a city-level dose-response analysis on educational attainment using WWII enlistees from 287 cities is mixed.

DOI
10.1086/719757
Volume
130
Issue
7
Pages
1963-1990
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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