Journal of Political Economy Vol. 91 No. 2 1983
Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II
Abstract
All but one of the U.S. recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag of around three-fourths of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum. This does not mean that oil shocks caused these recessions. Evidence is presented, however, that even over the period 1948-72 this correlation is statistically significant and nonspurious, supporting the proposition that oil shocks were a contributing factor in at least some of the U.S. recessions prior to 1972. By extension, energy price increases may account for much of post-OPEC macroeconomic performance.
- Volume
- 91
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 228-248
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib