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Journal of Political Economy Vol. 133 No. 5 2025

The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data

Dominick Bartelme1; Arnaud Costinot2; Dave Donaldson2; Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

1 Independent Researcher · 2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology

open access

Abstract

The textbook case for industrial policy is well understood: sectors with relatively large external economies of scale should be subsidized at the expense of other sectors. Little is known, however, about the magnitude of the welfare gains from such interventions. We develop an empirical strategy that leverages commonly available trade data to estimate sector-level economies of scale and, in turn, to quantify the gains from optimal industrial policy in a general equilibrium environment. Our results point toward significant economies of scale across manufacturing sectors but gains from industrial policy that are hardly transformative, even among the most open economies.

DOI
10.1086/734129
Volume
133
Issue
5
Pages
1527-1573
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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