Journal of Political Economy Vol. 133 No. 10 2025
Rationed Fertility: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in the Child Quantity-Quality Trade-Off
Abstract
We develop a generalized theory of rationed fertility to analyze treatment effect heterogeneity in the child quantity-quality trade-off. An exogenous increase in fertility can be either desired or undesired. We derive a positive rationing income effect on child quality for desired fertility increases but a negative rationing income effect for undesired fertility increases. We propose an econometric framework to identify treatment effects of desired and undesired fertility increases and estimate a structural model to gauge the quantitative importance of the novel rationing income effect. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing between desired and undesired changes when evaluating social programs.
- DOI
- 10.1086/736768
- Volume
- 133
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 3349-3386
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref