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Review of Finance Vol. 26 No. 5 2022

Political Beta

Raymond Fisman1; April M. Knill2; Sergey Mityakov2; Margarita Portnykh3

1 Boston University · 2 Florida State University · 3 Tepper Business School, Carnegie Mellon University ,

Abstract

Using a portfolio theory framework, we introduce the concept of “political beta” to model firm-level export diversification in response to global political risk. Our model predicts that firms are less responsive to changes in political relations with lower beta countries—those that contribute less to the firm’s total political risk. We document patterns consistent with our model using disaggregated Russian firm-by-destination-country data during 2001–2011: Trade is positively correlated with political relations, though the effect is far weaker for trading partners whose political relations with Russia are relatively uncorrelated with those of other partners in a firm’s export portfolio.

DOI
10.1093/rof/rfac012
Volume
26
Issue
5
Pages
1179-1215
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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