American Economic Review Vol. 80 No. 3 1990
Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models
Abstract
The information contained in one model's forecast compared to that in another can be assessed from a regression of actual values on predicted values from the two models. We do this for forecasts of real GNP growth rates for different pairs of models. The models include a structural model (the Fair (1976) model), various versions of the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and various versions of a model we call the "autoregressive components" (AC) model. Our procedure requires that forecasts make no use of future information, and we have been careful to try to insure this, including using the version of the Fair model that existed in 1976, the beginning of our test period.
- Volume
- 80
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 375-389
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib