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American Economic Review Vol. 113 No. 7 2023

Prudential Policy with Distorted Beliefs

Eduardo Dávila1; Ansgar Walther2

1 Yale University and NBER (email: ) · 2 Imperial College, London, and CEPR (email: )

open access

Abstract

This paper studies leverage regulation when equity investors and/or creditors have distorted beliefs relative to a planner. We characterize how the optimal regulation responds to arbitrary changes in investors’/creditors’ beliefs, relating our results to practical scenarios. We show that the optimal regulation depends on the type and magnitude of such changes. Optimism by investors calls for looser leverage regulation, while optimism by creditors, or jointly by both investors/creditors, calls for tighter leverage regulation. Our results apply to environments with (i) planners with imperfect knowledge of investors’/creditors’ beliefs, (ii) monetary policy, (iii) bailouts and pecuniary externalities, and (iv) endogenous beliefs.

DOI
10.1257/aer.20210753
Volume
113
Issue
7
Pages
1967-2006
Language
en
Sources
openalex bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref

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