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American Economic Review Vol. 114 No. 3 2024

The Gender Gap in Confidence: Expected but Not Accounted For

Christine L. Exley1; Kirby Nielsen2

1 University of Michigan (email: ) · 2 California Institute of Technology (email: )

Abstract

We investigate how the gender gap in confidence affects the views that evaluators (e.g., employers) hold about men and women. We find the confidence gap is contagious, causing evaluators to form overly pessimistic beliefs about women. This result arises even though the confidence gap is expected and even though the confidence gap shouldn’t be contagious if evaluators are Bayesian. Only an intervention that facilitates Bayesian updating proves (somewhat) effective. Additional results highlight how similar findings follow even when there is no room for discriminatory motives or differences in priors because evaluators are asked about arbitrary, rather than gender-specific, groups.

DOI
10.1257/aer.20221413
Volume
114
Issue
3
Pages
851-885
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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