American Economic Review Vol. 85 No. 4 1995
War Politics: An Economic, Rational-Voter Framework
Abstract
The frequency of foreign conflict initiations in the United States is found to be significantly greater following the onset of recessions during a president's first term than in other periods. We develop an economic theory of the political use of wars which links the election cycle, war decisions, and economic performance consistent with the observed relationships among these events. An incumbent leader with an unfavorable economic performance record may initiate a war to force the learning of his war leadership abilities and thus salvage, with some probability, his reelection. This obtains despite voter rationality and informational symmetry.
- Volume
- 85
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 828-846
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib