American Economic Review Vol. 114 No. 1 2024
The Ends of 27 Big Depressions
Abstract
How did countries recover from the Great Depression? In this paper we explore the argument that leaving the gold standard helped by boosting inflationary expectations and lowering real interest rates. We do so for a sample of 30 countries, using modern nowcasting methods and a new dataset containing more than 230,000 monthly and quarterly observations for over 1,500 variables. In those cases where the departure from gold happened on clearly defined dates, it seems clear that inflationary expectations rose in the wake of departure. IV regressions and synthetic matching techniques suggest that the relationship is causal, a finding that is supported by DSGE model-based counterfactuals as well.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
- DOI
- 10.1257/aer.20221479
- Volume
- 114
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 134-168
- Language
- en
- Sources
- openalex bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref