American Economic Review Vol. 77 No. 1 1987
Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations
Abstract
[Survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes. We estimate extrapolative, adaptive, and regressive models of expectations. Static or "random walk" expectations and bandwagon expectations are rejected: current appreciation generates the expectation of future depreciation because variables other than the contemporaneous spot rate receive weight. In comparing expectations to the process governing the spot rate, we find statistically significant bias.]
- Volume
- 77
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 133-153
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib