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American Economic Review Vol. 113 No. 5 2023

The Costs of Job Displacement over the Business Cycle and Its Sources: Evidence from Germany

Johannes F. Schmieder1; Till von Wachter2; Jörg Heining3

1 Department of Economics, Boston University, NBER, CEPR, and IZA (email: ) · 2 Department of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles, NBER, CEPR, and IZA (email: ) · 3 Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and IZA (email: )

Abstract

We document the sources behind the costs of job loss over the business cycle using administrative data from Germany. Losses in annual earnings after displacement are large, persistent, and highly cyclical, nearly doubling in size during downturns. A large part of the long-term earnings losses and their cyclicality is driven by declines in wages. Key to these long-lasting wage declines and their cyclicality are changes in employer characteristics, as displaced workers switch to lower-paying firms. These losses increase with duration of nonemployment. Changes in characteristics of displaced workers or displacing firms, and other post-job loss career outcomes explain little of the cyclicality.

DOI
10.1257/aer.20200252
Volume
113
Issue
5
Pages
1208-1254
Language
en
Sources
openalex bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref

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