American Economic Review Vol. 78 No. 4 1988
Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale
Abstract
[Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long should it have taken contemporary forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? Data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters--together with modern historical data--are subjected to statistical analysis. Neither contemporary forecasters nor modern times-series analysts could have forecast the large declines in output following the Crash.]
- Volume
- 78
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 595-612
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib