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American Economic Review Vol. 78 No. 4 1988

Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale

Kathryn M. Dominguez; Ray C. Fair; Matthew D. Shapiro

Abstract

[Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long should it have taken contemporary forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? Data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters--together with modern historical data--are subjected to statistical analysis. Neither contemporary forecasters nor modern times-series analysts could have forecast the large declines in output following the Crash.]

Volume
78
Issue
4
Pages
595-612
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib

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