Journal of Finance Vol. 78 No. 1 2023
Principal Portfolios
Abstract
We propose a new asset pricing framework in which all securities' signals predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on securities' own‐signal predictability, assuming equal strength across securities, our framework includes cross‐predictability—leading to three main results. First, we derive the optimal strategy in closed form. It consists of eigenvectors of a “prediction matrix,” which we call “principal portfolios.” Second, we decompose the problem into alpha and beta, yielding optimal strategies with, respectively, zero and positive factor exposure. Third, we provide a new test of asset pricing models. Empirically, principal portfolios deliver significant out‐of‐sample alphas to standard factors in several data sets.
- DOI
- 10.1111/jofi.13199
- Volume
- 78
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 347-387
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref openalex