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Journal of Finance Vol. 72 No. 6 2017

Consumer Ruthlessness and Mortgage Default during the 2007 to 2009 Housing Bust

Neil Bhutta; JANE DOKKO; Hui Shan1

1 Federal Reserve

Abstract

From 2007 to 2009 U.S. house prices plunged and mortgage defaults surged. While ostensibly consistent with widespread “ruthless default,” analysis of detailed mortgage and house price data indicates that borrowers do not walk away until they are deeply underwater—far deeper than traditional models predict. The evidence suggests that lender recourse is not the major driver of this result. We argue that emotional and behavioral factors play an important role in decisions to continue paying. Borrower reluctance to walk away implies that the moral hazard cost of default as a form of social insurance may be lower than suspected.

DOI
10.1111/jofi.12523
Volume
72
Issue
6
Pages
2433-2466
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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