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Journal of Finance Vol. 78 No. 3 2023

Duration‐Driven Returns

Niels Joachim Gormsen1,2; Eben Lazarus1,3

1 City University of Hong Kong · 2 Institut de Médecine de la Reproduction · 3 University of Chicago

open access

Abstract

We propose a duration‐based explanation for the premia on major equity factors, including value, profitability, investment, low‐risk, and payout factors. These factors invest in firms that earn most of their cash flows in the near future and could therefore be driven by a premium on near‐future cash flows. We test this hypothesis using a novel data set of single‐stock dividend futures, which are claims on dividends of individual firms. Consistent with our hypothesis, the expected Capital Asset Pricing Model alpha on individual cash flows decreases in maturity within a firm, and the alpha is not related to the above characteristics when controlling for maturity.

DOI
10.1111/jofi.13216
Volume
78
Issue
3
Pages
1393-1447
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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