The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015*

Òscar Jordà; Katharina Knoll; D. Kuvshinov; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor

doi:10.1093/qje/qjz012

Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 134 No. 3 2019

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015*

Òscar Jordà¹; Katharina Knoll²; D. Kuvshinov³; Moritz Schularick⁴; Alan M. Taylor⁵

¹ Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and University of California, Davis · ² Deutsche Bundesbank · ³ University of Bonn · ⁴ University of Bonn and Centre for Economic Policy Research · ⁵ University of California, Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; and Centre for Economic Policy Research

open access

Abstract

What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive data set for all major asset classes, including housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new findings and puzzles.

DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjz012
Volume: 134
Issue: 3
Pages: 1225-1298
Language: en
Sources: bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref openalex

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015*

Abstract

Cite