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Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 138 No. 2 2023

The Refugee’s Dilemma: Evidence from Jewish Migration out of Nazi Germany

Johannes C. Buggle1; Thierry Mayer2; Seyhun Orcan Sakalli3; Mathias Thoenig4

1 University of Vienna , Austria · 2 Sciences Po and Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationiales , France, and Centre for Economic Policy Research, United Kingdom · 3 King’s College London , United Kingdom · 4 University of Lausanne and IMD Business School, Switzerland , and University of Oxford and Centre for Economic Policy Research, United Kingdom

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Abstract

We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level data set that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12% to 20% and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6% to 10%.

DOI
10.1093/qje/qjad001
Volume
138
Issue
2
Pages
1273-1345
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib crossref openalex

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