The Review of Asset Pricing Studies Vol. 14 No. 4 2024
Predicting the Equity Premium with Combination Forecasts: A Reappraisal
Abstract
This paper reappraises the usefulness of combining individual forecasts for predicting the U.S. equity premium. For comparison, we also consider penalized regression and dimension reduction approaches. We fail to find evidence of predictive ability in recent decades, regardless of the forecasting method used. Further analysis shows that an increase in the correlation of individual forecast errors is an important factor in the declining performance of combination forecasts.
- DOI
- 10.1093/rapstu/raae009
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 545-577
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref