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Review of Economic Studies Vol. 76 No. 4 2009

A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes

Theo Offerman1; Joep Sonnemans1; Gijs van de Kuilen; Peter P. Wakker2

1 University of Amsterdam · 2 Erasmus University Rotterdam

open access

Abstract

Proper scoring rules provide convenient and highly efficient tools for incentive-compatible elicitations of subjective beliefs. As traditionally used, however, they are valid only under expected value maximization. This paper shows how they can be generalized to modern (“non-expected utility”) theories of risk and ambiguity, yielding mutual benefits: users of scoring rules can benefit from the empirical realism of non-expected utility, and analysts of ambiguity attitudes can benefit from efficient measurements using proper scoring rules. An experiment demonstrates the feasibility of our generalization.

DOI
10.1111/j.1467-937x.2009.00557.x
Volume
76
Issue
4
Pages
1461-1489
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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