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Review of Economic Studies Vol. 90 No. 2 2023

Under Suspicion: Trust Dynamics with Secret Undermining

Aaron Kolb1; Erik Madsen2

1 Department of Business Economics and Public Policy, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University · 2 Department of Economics, New York University

Abstract

We study how an organization should dynamically screen an agent of uncertain loyalty whom it suspects of committing damaging acts of undermining. The organization controls the stakes of the relationship, while the agent strategically times undermining, which can occur repeatedly and is detected only stochastically. The optimal commitment stakes policy exhibits both discreteness and gradualism, with distinct “untrusted” and “trusted” phases featuring gradually rising stakes during the untrusted phase and a discrete gap in stakes between phases. This policy is also the equilibrium outcome when the organization cannot commit, and the agent’s equilibrium undermining policy exhibits variable, non-monotonic intensity.

DOI
10.1093/restud/rdac034
Volume
90
Issue
2
Pages
912-947
Language
en
Sources
bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref

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