Review of Economic Studies Vol. 58 No. 3 1991
Semi-Parametric Estimation and the Predictability of Stock Market Returns: Some Lessons from Japan
Abstract
The paper attempts to explore whether lagged variables that help predict stock returns are merely proxying for mis-measured risk. Therefore, three different ways of measuring risk are employed (i.e. semi-parametric, GARCH and lagged squared returns). In an application to Japanese data, four key predictor variables are shown to have non-trivial additional forecasting power irrespective of how we measure risk. Interestingly, unlike the U.S., the level of the lagged dividend yield is not positively correlated with returns in either Japan or South Korea.
- DOI
- 10.2307/2298011
- Volume
- 58
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 547
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref