The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 106 No. 6 2024
A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence from Controlled Settings
Abstract
The canonical hot hand fallacy result was recently reversed, based largely on a single statistic, and a data set that was underpowered for individual-level testing. Here we perform a more robust analysis, testing whether hot hand performance exists across (i) data sets: four different controlled shooting experiments, (ii) time: multiple sessions per individual spread across a six month gap, and (iii) various (improved) approaches to statistical testing. We find strong evidence of hot hand performance, both across data sets and within individuals across time. Moreover, in a study of beliefs, we find that expert observers can successfully predict which shooters get the hottest.
- DOI
- 10.1162/rest_a_01280
- Volume
- 106
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1607-1619
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref