The Review of Economics and Statistics Vol. 107 No. 2 2025
Doing More with Less: Predicting Primary Care Provider Effectiveness
Abstract
We use data from the Veterans Administration to examine the efficacy of primary care providers (PCPs). Leveraging quasi-random assignment of veterans to PCPs, we measure effectiveness using ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) and hospitalizations/emergency department (ED) visits for mental health or circulatory conditions. PCPs variation along these dimensions predicts future outcomes. For example, a one standard deviation improvement in mental health effectiveness reduces patient risk of death by 3.8% and lowers costs by 4.4% over the next three years. More effective PCPs do more with less: their patients have fewer primary care visits, specialist referrals, lab panels, or imaging tests.
- DOI
- 10.1162/rest_a_01290
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 289-305
- Language
- en
- Sources
- bibtex:phds-export.bib openalex crossref